Fantasy Tips for Dummies - The Last Encounter

68 minutes into week 14, glaring at the online update for Manchester City v Hull City I had come to the conclusion that my fantasy week would be rainy. I fought back the urge to throw my Blackberry Storm as my captain; Adebayor was being substituted by Mark Hughes. We all know the importance of having your captain deliver, and 2 points is absolutely unacceptable for the player whom we hand the virtual arm band. What made this worse was that while remaining up to date on the Man City game, I was glued to the television watching Rooney’s unimpressive hat trick. Of course, the night before I wrestled with logic, emotion and numbers in putting together my team and Rooney was a consideration for captain. I immediately immersed myself in self-pity, ‘You’re just unlucky’ I proclaimed. But I refuse to accept that tenuous excuse. In hind sight I came to the conclusion that history is the lesson in this loss. If I had looked at this fixture last year I might have seen that City may not deliver the goal fest I had been expecting. This edition’s tip is that the previous encounter can be a crucial indicator in the fantasy world, more specifically on the psychological state of a team.

Man City v Hull at Eastland’s 2008/09

Last year, this fixture was a turning point for Hull as Man City put them to the sword in a 5-1 thrashing at Eastland’s. Hull City manager Brown actually berated his team on the pitch at half time. (Hence Bullard’s comical celebration) That loss was the beginning of Hull’s 08/09 plummet and close encounter with relegation. The same managers locked horns today, with largely the same personnel on the pitch. Psychologically, Hull City may have had an advantage not only because of last years result but also because of the vividness of what happened. Certainly though, history tipped the odds against a goal fest for the City strike force. If I had factored last year’s fixture into my analysis I may have more strongly considered Rooney for captain who was due a performance, despite how unconvincing he has been, a decision worth 30 fantasy points. Many may be unconvinced by my argument but guess what? I don’t care. Lol. No, I do, and we actually have an opportunity to somewhat test my theory. Tomorrow we have two games with notable history.

Arsenal v Chelsea at the Emirates

Chelsea returns to the Emirates where they pummeled Arsenal 4-1 last year. I predict a low scoring stalemate here, despite Arsenal’s innate attacking mentality, the remnants of last years burning defeat remains. Such a margin will not repeat itself, at least not in Chelsea’s favor. The history here slightly differs from that of the Hull game as Ancelotti is a new variable in this equation. Arsenal is not only suffering from injuries but need to win tomorrow to challenge for the title. Chelsea, sitting atop the tables and enjoying their trade, will not be complacent but last year’s massacre and a depleted Arsenal will certainly not provide extra motivation for the Blues. Psychologically, Wenger has more wood to fire up a more than capable Arsenal. Expect the Gunners to stand up tomorrow to a tough Chelsea. Prediction: 1-1

Barcelona v Real Madrid at the Nou Camp

A game with history is an understatement when describing Real Madrid v Barcelona and though it does not concern our EPL fantasy managers it is a game that will attract the attention of all football pundits. The social, political, and economical implications that have followed this magnanimous football fixture are of the deepest and richest in the world but I do believe there is some clues in looking at recent encounters between these giants. Real Madrid was dispatched 2-0 in this fixture last year but the last time Madrid faced Barca, they were annihilated 6-2 in Madrid. That is the crucial fixture to take into account and would imply that another Barca victory by such a margin is unlikely. However Real Madrid v Barcelona is very different than a Chelsea v Arsenal. Though bearing some similarities as both games involve 2 footballing giants, Real Madrid v Barcelona, arguably El Clasico of all Classicos, decides the not so competitive La Liga. Chelsea v Arsenal does not decide the Premiership. Despite the score last year, I expect Madrid to come to win, not to save face. They believe they can win at the Camp Nou and will approach the game as such. Barcelona, at home will attack from the get go. Expect anything in this one, Madrid could win by a big margin, Barca could do the same as the biggest offensive guns of the game will be locked and loaded on both sides. I shall not try to predict this one. The hatred that these two clubs have for each other provides a football feast every year and this year will be no different. Prediction: I have no clue but as a Barca fan I want them to win. If I had to though... Barca 2 Madrid 1.

Conclusion

Now in truth, these two games are not entirely similar to the Hull City v Man City game but provide examples of how previous encounters may give clues to the psychological state of the personnel involved in an upcoming fixture. As the EPL approaches its half way mark, teams will begin to face each other for the second time of the season. Top managers will be reviewing initial encounters for clues to separate the fantasy dynamite and from the fantasy duds. Adebayor was a dud this week, Rooney on the other hand, dynamite but in the future the roles may be reversed. One thing though is clear, that fantasy points are to be gained in examining the previous encounters of a fixture. Managers able to foresee the fantasy C4 of the future by looking to the past will be the ones to explode ahead as the Barclays EPL approaches the Holiday season.